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Political Review Mar. 9, 2016

Primary Special: Donald Trump won the MI primary Tuesday along with Mississippi and Hawaii. Photo via Cristobal Herrera and the Detroit Free Press
Primary Special: Donald Trump won the MI primary Tuesday along with Mississippi and Hawaii. Photo via Cristobal Herrera and the Detroit Free Press

By Maren Roeske ’17 | Staff Writer

The Democrats

In Michigan’s Tuesday primary, Sen. Bernie Sanders won on the Democratic side, beating out former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton who was favored to win the state by polls prior to the election. With 97 percent of precincts reporting Sanders won by two percent.

Sanders’ Michigan win was an upset. Polls before voting placed Clinton with anywhere from an average of anywhere from a 17 percent to a 30 percent lead.

“I am grateful to the people of Michigan for defying the pundits and pollsters and giving us their support,” Sanders said in a statement issued by his campaign when the Michigan contest was called by The Associated Press.

Previous to Michigan, Sanders had fared poorly in racially diverse states, while Clinton had taken a dominate lead among minority voters, claiming a majority of Deep South states on Super Tuesday. Yet she lost her lead among black voters on Tuesday, a key Democratic constituency in Michigan.

Sanders took 30 percent of the Black vote with Clinton only receiving 68 percent according to exit polls. In Michigan, Clinton has a history of institutional support, and a well-developed, active local campaign, according to “The Detroit Free Press.” Her loss, despite of all these factors, challenges her path to both the nomination and a November win according to Politico.

Sanders also beat Clinton among independents, an important demographic to win the party’s nomination. Sanders had a 70 percent to 28 percent lead with independents, which was enough to upset Clinton’s 16 point lead with Democrats according to Politico

Despite Sanders victory in the polls, Clinton still took the delegate count for the day. She received 68 delegate with Sanders getting a close 65. Clinton also won in Mississippi, which voted Tuesday as well, with 82. 6 percent of the vote and 32 delegates according to Politico. Sanders trailed far behind with 16 percent and only 5 delegates. Democratic results for the Idaho and Hawaii primaries have yet to come in.

After Michigan’s delegate-rich primary, with a high 147 delegates to give, Clinton has 1221 delegates and Sanders has 571 out of a needed 2383 delegates to receive the nomination. There are 32 primaries left and 2973 delegates left to win.  

The Republicans

Frontrunner Donald Trump won the Michigan primary, as predicted by pollsters. Trump won by 11 points, with Ted Cruz taking second and John Kasich trailing in third place. Trump won with 36 percent of the vote. Cruz had 24.9 percent with Kasich behind him by .6 percent.

Trump won by running up a huge margin among men, according to exit polls, showing an gender gap among supporters. With 43 percent of the male vote, Trump ran 20 points ahead of Kasich at 23 percent and Cruz at 22 percent. Among women there were fewer supporters, and the race was much closer. Cruz beat Trump with 30 percent of the female vote. Trump received 28 percent,  and Kasich came in third with 25 percent.

In Michigan, Trump won 25 delegates out of the 59the state had to give, leaving Cruz and Kasich with 17 each. Also on Tuesday, Trump took a commanding lead in other primaries, winning Hawaii and Mississippi.

Cruz won Idaho by a large margin with 45 percent of the vote. Kasich won third place in Mississippi as well as Michigan while he was bumped to fourth place by Sen. Marco Rubio who took third in Hawaii and Idaho.

In the Mississippi primary, Trump won the white evangelical voter, a key Republican demographic, according to Politico. Trump received 48 percent of this important vote which is also Cruz’s main demographic, leaving Cruz with only 38 percent according to exit polls. Trump won the state with 47 percent of the vote.

Having stolen Cruz’s supporters in Mississippi, Trump looks toward Florida to take Rubio’s home state. A CNN/ORC poll out Wednesday has Trump holding the lead in Florida with almost double the share of voters of Rubio, 40 percent to 24 percent. The Rubio campaign has set up shop in Florida, hoping to win on a home-state advantage, doing back-to-back events for the past few days.

“I believe with all my heart that the winner of the Florida primary next Tuesday will be the nominee of the Republican Party,” Rubio said at rally in  Ponte Vedra, Florida Tuesday.

Florida has 99 delegates which could put Rubio in a better position to win the nomination, boosting his current delegate count of 151. Kasich is in last place delegate-wise with only 54. Cruz is in second place with 359 delegates and Trump is winning with 458 delegates out of the 1237 needed for the nomination. There are 1435 remaining delegates. The Virgin Islands are the next to vote in a Republican primary on March 10.

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